AFRMIP is a CLIVAR-VACS initiative that aims to systematically and as comprehensively as possible investigate multiple uncertainties in regional model simulations over different unique geographical regions of Africa, with the first phase focusing on the Greater Horn of Africa. The project is being coordinated by Dr. Richard Anyah (University of Connecticut) who is a member of CLIVAR-VACS panel. Phase I of the project is currenty partly funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). It is expected that at the end of this project a more objective way of addressing the inadequacies in the parameterizations of various physical processes in RCMs that may hinder accurate simulation of the primary features of the regional climate will be addressed. This will help create an objective criteria for customization of RCMs for the region. Another important aspect of the project is to generate high-resolution climate change scenarios for the GHA based on several RCMs nested in AOGCMs (IPCC, AR4 Projections) for impacts assessment.
Summary
The Greater Horn of AFrica Regional Model Intercomparison Project(AFRMIP) is a CLIVAR-VACS initiative that aims to systematically and as comprehensively as possible investigate multiple uncertainties in regional model simulations of the GHA climate. The project is being coordinated by Dr. Richard Anyah (University of Connecticut) who is a member of CLIVAR-VACS panel. The project is currenty partly funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). It is expected that at the end of this project a more objective way of addressing the inadequacies in the parameterizations of various physical processes in RCMs that may hinder accurate simulation of the primary features of the regional climate will be addressed. This will help create an objective criteria for customization of RCMs for the region. Another important aspect of the project is to generate high-resolution climate change scenarios for the GHA based on several RCMs nested in AOGCMs for impact assessment. The previous IPCC reports have painted a gloomy picture on most parts of the African continent, including the GHA in terms of vulnerability of their natural systems to climate change; a situation made worse by the region’s low adaptive capacity to impacts of climate change.
Background
The Greater Horn of Africa is a unique region, replete with complex terrain and other surface heterogeneities imposed by the presence of large inland lakes (Victoria, Tanganyika, Malawi), The Great Rift Valley system, and high mountains (Kilimanjaro, Kenya, Rwenzori) as well as variable vegetation types. The region thus provides a conducive setting for interactions between large scale and local climate systems on various spatial and temporal scales. This unique geographical setting therefore presents challenges in quantitative understanding of cause-effect relationships between regional climate variability and individual or combinations of both local and large scale processes. This also means that developing high-resolution climate change scenarios for impacts assessments in the region can also be quite challenging. Understanding the interactions and feedbacks between the two scales is important for characterization of the dynamical and physical mechanisms associated with regional climate variability and predictability.
Experiments
PHASE I:
Expt.1a: Sept.1988-Jan.1989(normal short rains season) simulations using NCEP-DOE ReanalysisII boundary conditions
Expt.1b: Same as 1a, but for same season in 1997/98 (Wet:Strong El Nino)
Expt.1c: Same as 1a, but for same season in 2000/01 (Dry:La Nina)
PHASE II:
Expt.2a-c Same as expts.1a-c, except boundary conditions from AGCM/AOGCM
Objectives
- Intercompare regional climate simulations of The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) climate across space and time, based on different state-of-the-art RCMs in order to explore and evaluate uncertainties in the present skill of these models over the region.
- Develop a reasonably objective criteria for modifying and improving the parameterizations of various physical processes (e.g convection, radiation, boundary layer, etc) as would be appropriate for improving the performance (skill) of RCMs over the GHA sub-region.
- Develop a regional seasonal climate dynamical prediction system.
- Generate high-resolution regional climate change scenarios to assess the impacts on regional hydrological systems, including the fluctuations of Lake Victoria levels as well as the hydro-climatic changes over the lower and upper Nile river basins.
Participants
Filippo Giorgi, ICTP (giorgi@ictp.it)
Jeremy Pal, LMU, CA (jpal@lmu.edu)
Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas Austine,TX (khc6@cornell.edu)
Emily Riddle, Cornell University, NY (eer24@cornell.edu)
Joseph Instiful, UK, Met Office (joseph.intsiful@metoffice.gov.uk)
Dave Rowell, UK, Met Office (Dave.Rowell@metoffice.gov.uk)
Neil Davis, Univeristy of North Carolina, Chappell Hill (davisnn@gmail.com )
Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, UK, Met Office (wilfran.moufouma-okia@metoffice.gov.uk)
Fred Semazzi, NC State University, NC (fred_semazzi@ncsu.edu)
Jared Bowden, EPA,Research Traingle Park, NC (jhbowden@unity.ncsu.edu)
Bill Gutowski, Iowa State University, IA (gutowski@iastate.edu)
Liqiang Sun, IRI, NY (sun@iri.columbia.edu)
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Washington State (Ruby.Leung@pnl.gov)
Chris Reason, University of Cape Town, South Africa (jr@egs.uct.ac.za)
Mark Tadross, University of Cape Town, South Africa (mtadross@csag.uct.ac.za)
Laban Ogallo, ICPAC/University of Nairobi, Kenya (logallo@icpac.net)
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Spain (gonzalo@envsci.rutgers.edu)
Richard Anyah, University of Connecticut,CT (richard.anyah@uconn.edu)